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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    Apparently, no one is knocking on Kodak's door.

    These things I post are only the most superficial of product ideas or even trade trialed items. I could add a lot more.

    PE
    Well, I think it would be accurate to say that EK DOES have emerging technology that others want to purchase...but not on the analog side of the house.

    On the plus side...I did read an article today that predicted digital camera sales have just about peaked and could tail off rather dramatically after 2010. They cited super-saturation of markets and imminent loss of customer excitement as the factors. An increased tendency towards ennui in the digital age...wow, who could have predicted that?:rolleyes:

    A "Second Coming of Film" may be too much to ask for, but perhaps it may yet survive as a commerically-supported entity. We will just have to wait and see I guess and keep shooting in the meantime.

  2. #42

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    Adelvo that is a pretty cool post.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by aldevo View Post
    On the plus side...I did read an article today that predicted digital camera sales have just about peaked and could tail off rather dramatically after 2010. They cited super-saturation of markets and imminent loss of customer excitement as the factors.
    This makes a lot of sense. The wave of initial adoption for d****** point and shoots must be tailing off, as must the wave of upgrades for early adopters that bought in when image resolutions were much lower. Resolutions are no longer advancing by leaps and bounds in either the consumer or pro products. Dropping price points for higher resolutions can spur a certain amount of upgrading but not really fuel booming sales.
    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. In velit arcu, consequat at, interdum sit amet, consequat in, quam.

  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordke View Post
    Adelvo that is a pretty cool post.
    Thanks, though I do have to post one correction.

    Apparently, there IS a rumor that EK will be bought and that's what sent the stock up in a hurry.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=an8VHmaYEK5E

    Rumors are just that. I mean, what company ISN'T the subject of a buy-out or merger right now? Private Equity has its hands in all pies by the look of things.

    I'm entirely neutral on what this would mean for Consumer & Professional Still Picture Photography products. I've speculated before...but I'm not going there other than to say that my best prediction is:

    In time, any possible outcome can happen for any reason be it anticipated or otherwise.

    And I won't commit to anything more than that!

  5. #45
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    All this begs the question: Is EK sitting on some significant digichnology that may have a major market impact? I can barely spell business, but I'd be curious to see what PE might be able to share on that front. The traditional r&d is impressive, if sadly unavailable, but how strong is that department in the d*****l domain? Will that market reach saturation as mentioned above, and taper off to incremental advances, or is there a tsunami of whammo innovation in the offing.
    John Voss

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  6. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by jstraw View Post
    This makes a lot of sense. The wave of initial adoption for d****** point and shoots must be tailing off, as must the wave of upgrades for early adopters that bought in when image resolutions were much lower. Resolutions are no longer advancing by leaps and bounds in either the consumer or pro products. Dropping price points for higher resolutions can spur a certain amount of upgrading but not really fuel booming sales.
    Agreed, we've seen this before.

    Personal Computers in the 80s were a status symbol. They aren't now because most households have been through several cycles of purchasing them and the only people excited over them these days can be, justifiably, labeled as dorks.

    Look at the trends in analog SLR camera manufacture.

    - There was stagnation in the early 70s and then suddenly SLR manufacturers went to electronically-controlled shutters and automated exposure.

    - The was stagnation again in the early-mid 80s and then suddenly auto-focus was brought to market.

    - I believe there was also another period in the early-mid 90s when there was a slowdown. First we got APS, then we got digital.

    Whoop-de-doo. The market is mature and we've got players dropping out of camera manufacture one after the other. DSLRs do well, but the point-and-shoot market is already past peak.

    I think I have a fair idea of what will come during the next slowdown, but I won't go there. If I'm right - Canon, Nikon, Olympus, and Pentax won't like it.

    I've already posted at-length about the challenges I think analog photography products face in remaining commercially-available. Hopefully, we are apporaching a point where the rate (percentage-wise) of the decline is leveling off. What happens after that, I think, will depend on whether educators can be convinced that analog is still relevant and whether manufacturers can exist in a niche market-place.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by aldevo View Post
    I think I have a fair idea of what will come during the next slowdown, but I won't go there. If I'm right - Canon, Nikon, Olympus, and Pentax won't like it.
    You think there's a technological innovation being held in reserve for that market-moment? And that it doesn't serve the interests of companies that come at this from the photographic side of things? It's not the "convergence" snake oil...so I'll guess that who it will make happy is the likes of Sony, Panasonic, Sanyo, Samsung, Toshiba, etc.

    Am I warm?
    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. In velit arcu, consequat at, interdum sit amet, consequat in, quam.

  8. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by jstraw View Post
    You think there's a technological innovation being held in reserve for that market-moment? And that it doesn't serve the interests of companies that come at this from the photographic side of things? It's not the "convergence" snake oil...so I'll guess that who it will make happy is the likes of Sony, Panasonic, Sanyo, Samsung, Toshiba, etc.

    Am I warm?
    IMO, very, though I might have chosen a couple different names.

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by aldevo View Post
    Agreed, we've seen this before.

    Personal Computers in the 80s were a status symbol. They aren't now because most households have been through several cycles of purchasing them and the only people excited over them these days can be, justifiably, labeled as dorks.
    If you had one in the 70s, you were also labeled a dork. Or a geek, or worse.

    A slowdown in digital camera sales as the market matures should hardly be a surprise to anyone; that's how markets work. The technology is getting to the point where it's "good enough" for most casual users, and they aren't going to really get any benefit out of further improvements unless there's a significant breakthrough on the "ease of use" front. I don't see that it necessarily means anything one way or the other as far as future film use goes.

  10. #50

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    Kodak Analog Products

    PE,

    All very interesting yet extremely esoteric products. I do understand what it takes to bring a product to market from my day job so you do not need to convince me otherwise. I have done dozens of return on investment analyses for the very reason you describe - is developing the product worth the company's investment? While products such as these might be interesting to play with, most would do insignificant commercial volume in my estimation to provide an ROI. I would be perfectly happy with Kodak simply continuing to cut TMAX400 in ULF sizes. To that end, if you are able and willing to PM me with the contact info of whom at Kodak I may contact to express that sentiment, I would be most appreciative. You can also easily find my public contact info with a simple web search if you prefer a different mode of communication.

    I am but one voice, but one who has used Kodak film and other products for 40 years. My uncle and cousin both retired from the Findlay, OH processing facility and I still have the nitrocellulose Kodak film negatives my grandfather took for family pictures from 1902-1920 - properly stored, of course.

    Bob

    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    1. Direct reversal, 3 step "R" paper like Radiance.

    2. 3000 speed in-camera instant product. (blocked by Polaroid suit) This was close to release.

    3. Peel apart Polaroid like film. (blocked by Polaroid suit) This was close to release.

    4. High stability dyes (in early stages, a new chelating agent was needed) Dye stability surpassed anything seen in any product today except pigment type dyes. It may have surpassed them.

    5. Colorless prints that bloomed into full color under UV.

    6. 3D color prints. These were spectacular and needed no glasses to view. Kodak used a sample of this on the Annual report cover about 20 years ago.

    7. Instant color heat processed film (blocked by Polaroid suit and digital)

    8. Copper based photographic systems

    9. Polymeric gelatin and coupler substitutes (they take a LOT more work) Improves grain dramatically.

    10. An ISO 400 Kodachrome, finished in 1988 but rejected by customers during trade trial. Used T-Grains. (In trade trial in 1988)

    11. T-Grain Kodachrome in other speeds (ditto above).

    12. Two electron sensitization applied to B&W, which will take several years and millions to complete.

    13. ISO 25,000 speed direct positive thermal film.

    14. Pollution free film and paper process. (too expensive at the time)

    15. High activity organic fixing agents with low pollution.

    16. Mixed packet color with a single layer producing all colors of todays color papers. This had many problems yet to be solved, but was killed by slide coating and curtain coating. It would still be a big advance.


    I have alluded to these in a number of posts. Here are some of them all in one list.

    Enjoy. There are probably hundreds more that I could mention but won't, and hundreds more I don't know about.

    PE

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