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  1. #11
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    I would gladly start paying higher prices now if it could prevent materials from being discontinued. Frankly it concerns me that film/paper prices haven't gone up significantly even as silver prices have shot up. It means either that the MFGs are very well leveraged, or they are absorbing the costs right now. I'm fine with them absorbing the costs just so long as it doesn't jeopardize my ability to buy film in the future.
    f/22 and be there.

  2. #12
    AgX
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    There should not be that great of a problem if manufacturers would buy silver on a daily basis, and if there would be a daily return on their expenses by means of flexible product prices . In the last silvercrisis they saw themselves limited by customer prices which they thought would not yield space to bring over increased raw material costs. I must add here that then on some markets prices were regulated.

    At least now all manufacturers seem to buy silver in batches, what to my understanding does not make things easier.

    Now there are people in the industry who see the situatian of rizing prices for raw materials as positive as by lifting product prices they could accelerate the consumer to change to other (digital) products of them, from which they expect higher profits.

  3. #13
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    Any smart manufacturer that is beholden to commodity prices will have a strongly hedged position in said commodities. For example, trucking companies are heavily invested in oil futures, so that if the price of fuel spikes upward, they are not affected as much.
    f/22 and be there.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetterSense View Post
    Any smart manufacturer that is beholden to commodity prices will have a strongly hedged position in said commodities. For example, trucking companies are heavily invested in oil futures, so that if the price of fuel spikes upward, they are not affected as much.
    Not to mention the fact that most manufacturers have contracted delivery prices for several quarters out. That's part of the reason the quarterly demand reports we devour so rabidly are calculated. They have to project for their suppliers in the contract, so they look at both long term and short term trends for the model.

    For example, if there is a seasonal spike for the past 30 years of X%, but a yearly decline over the past 5 years of Y% they aren't going to buy for the season like they did 30 years ago. It's just common sense when you look at it, but it's a bunch of number crunching none the less.

    While I don't sit on Ilford's or Kodak's financial advisory committee (1), so I cannot speak with any real authority, I'll bet you an unopened roll of K64 that they see less volatility in their silver price than the spot market.

    (1) I'm not sure my wife even likes for me to sit on our household financial advisory committee!!
    Michael Batchelor
    Industrial Informatics, Inc.
    www.industrialinformatics.com

    The camera catches light. The photographer catches life.

  5. #15
    AgX
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    Quote Originally Posted by michaelbsc View Post
    I'll bet you an unopened roll of K64 that they see less volatility in their silver price than the spot market.
    Their price is not volatile as seemingly they do not buy on a daily basis. But speculating on a baisse to stock up for future production is working with the volatily of prices.

    But see my remark too on employing higher prices. And this is not made up out of thin air, to stay in the picture.

  6. #16
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    No amount of commodity hedging makes a difference if commodity prices go up and stay up due to currency weakening, of course, in which case we can expect the economy at large to suffer and niche products to do so even more so.
    f/22 and be there.

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by jeffreyg View Post
    In 2005 a roll of Delta 400 120 was $2.99 (I have an old catalog) and now $4.12 a 4% increase.
    Strange arithmetic ???? Surely that is a 37,8% increase ???? It would be interesting to know the total inflation rate of household commodities in those five years . . . it could well be about the same !

  8. #18

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    Sorry for the typo was intending approx 40% but was multitasking and didn't pay attention to the keys. The "0" didn't get pressed hard enough before I hit reply.

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    What would be useful to know in this discussion is what percent of the purchase price of a roll of film is attributed to the cost of the raw silver in the film. Something tells me that it will be fairly small, with the majority of the cost going for manufacturing, quality control, distribution, and retail mark up.

    Regards,

    Dave

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Martiny View Post
    What would be useful to know in this discussion is what percent of the purchase price of a roll of film is attributed to the cost of the raw silver in the film.
    According to thisarticle on Silver recovery from the USGS (2000), film has around 5-8 grams of silver per sq. meter (the paper notes that precise formulations are not revealed by film companies). Check the chart on p. N4. It notes a 24-exposure roll of 35mm is .04 sq. meters. One-fifth of a gram per roll, or thereabouts. About 15-20 cents at today's prices. A few years ago, that was probably more like 5 cents. A significant difference for a product with a retail price of $4-5. Note the usage numbers: 1 billion rolls for color, 40 million for b&w. 1800 metric tons of silver. A significant expense.

    But of course there are other changes, too. Compared to a few years ago, the pound and the euro are weaker relative to the dollar, but the yen is much stronger. That's got to have a huge effect on the products that say, Fuji offers for export.

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