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  1. #41
    2F/2F's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Jones View Post
    However, for most of us, the cost of film is a small fraction of the total cost of photography as a business or hobby.
    Do you really think that this is true for most of us? When thinking about the numbers, I am almost certain that over the years I have spent at least twice as much on film as I have on equipment...and I have a decent amount of junk (though none of it too pricey) and have gone through periods in which I don't shoot a whole ton of film (like now – too busy). If you see film as a small fraction of the total cost of photography as a business or hobby, what costs do you see as being a large fraction?
    2F/2F

    "Truth and love are my law and worship. Form and conscience are my manifestation and guide. Nature and peace are my shelter and companions. Order is my attitude. Beauty and perfection are my attack."

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  2. #42
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    For me film and paper and chems or processing are the largest costs, in that order.

    Anyway I'd be curious to know what are the big cost drivers for film, if not silver.... my guess there is a better correlation with oil price than anything else. Film is, ultimately, a petrochemical product.
    "Only dead fish follow the stream"

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  3. #43
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    The real risk is not whether photographic film gets more expensive for us but whether the high film prices convince more movie theaters to switch to digital projection. Read PhotoEngineers postings, where most of Kodaks film production output goes to, and if that market collapses under high prices, color film may well be gone.
    Trying to be the best of whatever I am, even if what I am is no good.

  4. #44
    keithwms's Avatar
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    I am (fairly) sure the Chinese market will keep it alive for a good long while though.
    "Only dead fish follow the stream"

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  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by keithwms
    I am (fairly) sure the Chinese market will keep it alive for a good long while though.
    I don't think this is correct. I think the places where film did not already have very high penetration are more likely to skip straight to digital. Without a history of film, the price point due digital (no recurring expenses like new film) will become a selling point.
    Michael Batchelor
    Industrial Informatics, Inc.
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    The camera catches light. The photographer catches life.

  6. #46
    keithwms's Avatar
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    That's not what I have read, Michael. We think of China as being this fairly modern place in which everybody has access to new technology, but there is massive inequity in salary and buying power there (sorry Mao!). Places we see on the telly, places like Hong Kong and Shanghai, are really not representative of the conditions of the vast majority of the population. I don't recall the article but there was a forecast that it'd take at least a decade for China to go digital.

    Anyway, friends like Per Volquartz have gone to China many times and found a solid base of support for analogue. You can get beautiful LF cameras made for a song ( I adore my shen 5x8 back which cost all of $200). I haven't been to China yet; I would absolutely love to before we turn it into what we have become, but I seriously doubt that I'll see a lot of DSLRs slung around the necks of the youth like you do here.

    Ultimately the demise of the consumer film market will be no big deal. It'll be a shame, but it will make what some of us do even more exotic and unique. I think we analoguers will see the value of handcraft go up... way up... in the coming years. Some will bemoan the extra work it takes to use homebrew chemistry to makes purely handcrafted images, but we have to remember that value, whether you define it in terms of the experience of the craft or the selling price of the print, is going up not down.
    "Only dead fish follow the stream"

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  7. #47
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    China was and remains a huge market for digital kiosks due to the fact that many people have no phones or computers. So, they send each other pictures from a CD that may be analog but recently has been becoming more and more digital. Kodak had a very large network of kiosks in "communication centers" where families could come to pick up photos from other parts of their families in other cities. IDK what this means for digital or analog, but it seems to me that the market model for China is vastly different than that of the US.

    On another tack, the market for cameras in Muslim countries is different yet again. There, women are not generally allowed to handle or use cameras and in some cases are not allowed to be photographed.

    So, no single model can be used anywhere in the world for what might happen to the analog market.

    PE

  8. #48
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    I would be happy to be wrong in my conjecture. If emerging economies can keep film afloat I'll keep buying it.
    Michael Batchelor
    Industrial Informatics, Inc.
    www.industrialinformatics.com

    The camera catches light. The photographer catches life.

  9. #49
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    Well, this was the problem with Kodak's model and that of just about every other film company. Large countries like Brazil and China as well as parts of Africa just jumped into digital and bypassed analog. The Kodak model said B&W analog -> color analog -> digital, but the analog was bypassed due to the huge drop in prices of digital items.

    PE

  10. #50

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    Quote Originally Posted by keithwms View Post
    That's not what I have read, Michael. We think of China as being this fairly modern place in which everybody has access to new technology, but there is massive inequity in salary and buying power there (sorry Mao!). Places we see on the telly, places like Hong Kong and Shanghai, are really not representative of the conditions of the vast majority of the population....
    That is true.

    However, yesterday I saw an ad for a report that China was behind the surge in the price of silver... Can't form an informed opinion myself, but given the known history of the last silver price explosion, it probably makes sense to take a deeper look....

    The report might be offered for "free"...
    if anyone reads it please do comment on it here.

    Ray

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