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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2F/2F View Post
    Ah, yes! Mining accidents must also be included!

    Sorry, I am just joking, and I could not resist.
    spell "check"....
    Quote Originally Posted by 2F/2F View Post

    But Three Mile Island was definitely not prevented from being worse by "pure luck." Nor was it a minor accident.
    It was pure luck, if that core had hit 5000 degrees (which was very close, it reached around 4700) it would have had a full meltdown. If they hadnt got the phone call telling them to dump 400 gallons of water into the reactor it would have reached 5000 degrees (in probably minutes). If the hydrogen release had been a bit higher then it could have reached the critical mixture (ok depend on oxygen levels).

    Actually there were two groups who argued if it would blow or not, and none had real scientific evidence, it was a coin flipp. I call this pure luck, because no one knew what was going on.

    (before I got my phd in computer science I was a physics, but working with plasma)

    Quote Originally Posted by 2F/2F View Post
    But even thought the accident was very serious, it did not cause widespread damage. You basically need a Chernobyl to do that: Breach of the reactor vessel and explosion causing the fuel and other core material to go flying into the air. And trust me, the people operating Chernobyl that night certainly did just about everything they possibly could have to make sure that that accident happened...which is pretty much the only way to have an accident that bad.
    At three mils iland the OPERATOR turned OFF the automatic water pumps, which was pumping water into the reactor because a valve did not close which made the water level to sink inside the reactor tank. If the operator would not have done this no incident would have happen (because the automatic functions did the right thing, the operators screwed it up, read any report about the incident, or any TV documentary)
    Quote Originally Posted by 2F/2F View Post
    The fact is that no form of steam plant is truly 100 percent safe. Properly designed, built, maintained, and operated nuclear plants, however, are pretty much the least bad of all the options IMHO. I'd rather have a nuclear plant in my back yard than a conventional one.
    Same her, would rather have a nuclear plant close to me, UNTILL it blow up

    cheers

  2. #42
    Dinesh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CGW View Post
    I really can't believe this thread. You might think less about yourselves and more about donating a few $ to the Red Cross or Habitat for Humanity Japan.

    (http://www.habitatjp.org/WH/hfhj_e.html).
    Priceless! Why don't you get off your wallet and help Sean out by becoming a subscriber?
    Kick his ass, Sea Bass!

  3. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2F/2F View Post
    Yes, it is to be expected. But what are the levels? Not enough to do anything to anyone. Even in the communities surrounding "ground zero," this is not the case.
    No mSv values has been release except the values are 1600 times higher then normal, and Japan has earlier reported that the normal value for them are 10.27 mSv/24h, so the 1600x increase should give them a value around 16500 mSs/24h. Chernobyl was around 10,000–300,000 mSv/hr, so its far from Chernobyl. If you worked at a nuclear plant you know that most of them say that you should not be exposed to more then 20 mSv for a whole year, and current/earlier (dont know now) its around 640 mSv/hr at "ground zero", and I would not call this "nothing", that IS really bad, just for reference (and this is a single dose, not over 1hr)

    100 mSv - great risk for birth defects
    3-4 Sv - 50% chans to die
    10 Sv - 100% chans to die, aka DEAD

    Here is a live geiger counter in Tokyo http://www.ustream.tv/channel/7517126
    (a geiger measurement alone can not be translated to mSv, because to do that you have to know the type of radiation and how deadly it is)

    cheers
    Last edited by sandholm; 03-22-2011 at 06:56 PM. Click to view previous post history. Reason: added link

  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by sandholm View Post
    spell "check"....

    It was pure luck, if that core had hit 5000 degrees (which was very close, it reached around 4700) it would have had a full meltdown. If they hadnt got the phone call telling them to dump 400 gallons of water into the reactor it would have reached 5000 degrees (in probably minutes). If the hydrogen release had been a bit higher then it could have reached the critical mixture (ok depend on oxygen levels).

    Actually there were two groups who argued if it would blow or not, and none had real scientific evidence, it was a coin flipp. I call this pure luck, because no one knew what was going on.

    (before I got my phd in computer science I was a physics, but working with plasma)


    At three mils iland the OPERATOR turned OFF the automatic water pumps, which was pumping water into the reactor because a valve did not close which made the water level to sink inside the reactor tank. If the operator would not have done this no incident would have happen (because the automatic functions did the right thing, the operators screwed it up, read any report about the incident, or any TV documentary)

    Same her, would rather have a nuclear plant close to me, UNTILL it blow up

    cheers
    Hi, I am aware of the details of the casualty at TMI, in wretched detail. I had to learn all about it at one point when learning to work on the plants. My point was simply that even with the extreme operator error there, damage to humans was minimal, considering the severity of the event, and that it was nowhere near the level of reckless plant operation that occurred at Chernobyl. A cooling malfunction handled incorrectly is far less unbelieveable and reckless than placing the plant in a configuration like was done at Chernobyl prior to the accident. They manually set the thing up to be resting on a hair trigger, and in a way that was completely irrecoverable my any means once the trigger was pressed.

    My point was not that TMI was not serious or was not caused primarily by humans not doing their jobs properly. It was just that it takes some SERIOUS negligence, coupled with a less-than-smart plant design to cause an accident as catastrophic as Chernobyl.

    Someone realizing what was going on and taking steps to fix the situation at TMI is not "pure luck." That is exactly what plant workers are supposed to do, all the time. That is the results of someone, somewhere, finally doing their job. Pure luck would have been something unexpected, say an electrical fluke, that had turned the M/ECPs back on without operator action, for instance.

    Could have been much worse? Absolutely. But it was not saved from being so by luck...and definitely not "pure" luck.
    Last edited by 2F/2F; 03-22-2011 at 07:04 PM. Click to view previous post history.
    2F/2F

    "Truth and love are my law and worship. Form and conscience are my manifestation and guide. Nature and peace are my shelter and companions. Order is my attitude. Beauty and perfection are my attack."

    - Rob Tyner (1944 - 1991)

  5. #45

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    640 mSv/hr in the surrounding communities? AFAIK, 400 was the highest experienced by humans so far, and that was at the plant itself.
    Last edited by 2F/2F; 03-22-2011 at 06:51 PM. Click to view previous post history.
    2F/2F

    "Truth and love are my law and worship. Form and conscience are my manifestation and guide. Nature and peace are my shelter and companions. Order is my attitude. Beauty and perfection are my attack."

    - Rob Tyner (1944 - 1991)

  6. #46
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    Sandholm is correct about 3 mile Island and the mistakes made and the luck that saved us from a major meltdown. He is also quoting figures that at present are not good for film. That is about all I can say. Ungood for film! People will not notice it any more than they notice an X-Ray, but the film might look like someone peppered it with black dots.

    As for my sources, they are impeccable, I assure you! After all, even if I was quoting myself, well, BTDT as they say, so I know what nuclear particles (meaning radioactive dust in this case) can do to an emulsion. When you consider that 1 drop of Mercury can paralyze Kodak if spilled in one of the buildings, think what a dust cloud could do to them or Fuji, particularly Fuji.

    Actually, just as in the car industry and other areas of production relying on Japanese industry, we may see an interruption in the flow of Fuji products for one quarter or perhaps more. It depends too much on imponderables. If it is really bad, and Kodak cannot get their nuclear protection system going again, it may even impact Kodak. As I said, IDK anything for sure. This was a warning of a potential problem. Ignore it, mock it or whatever, but if it "gets you" I get the last laugh!

    PE

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    In a related development a few minutes ago, I learnt from one of my Canon suppliers this morning (Australian time) that the plant responsible for manufacture of Canon's L-series optics was "flattened" in Japan and prices "will be rising sharply" on the high-end lenses. He did not mention which factory; Canon has a few handling everything from camera bodies to lens coatings. Wondering now about Nikon, Pentax, others... Fuji...

    I donated $150 to the Red Cross in the New Zealand disaster, and last weekend $50 for the Japan quake. Maybe we should make a donation to Canon, Fuji et al.

  8. #48
    CGW
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    Check the Nikon Japan news.

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    Sandholm is correct about 3 mile Island and the mistakes made and the luck that saved us from a major meltdown. He is also quoting figures that at present are not good for film. That is about all I can say. Ungood for film! People will not notice it any more than they notice an X-Ray, but the film might look like someone peppered it with black dots.

    As for my sources, they are impeccable, I assure you! After all, even if I was quoting myself, well, BTDT as they say, so I know what nuclear particles (meaning radioactive dust in this case) can do to an emulsion. When you consider that 1 drop of Mercury can paralyze Kodak if spilled in one of the buildings, think what a dust cloud could do to them or Fuji, particularly Fuji.

    Actually, just as in the car industry and other areas of production relying on Japanese industry, we may see an interruption in the flow of Fuji products for one quarter or perhaps more. It depends too much on imponderables. If it is really bad, and Kodak cannot get their nuclear protection system going again, it may even impact Kodak. As I said, IDK anything for sure. This was a warning of a potential problem. Ignore it, mock it or whatever, but if it "gets you" I get the last laugh!

    PE
    Sandholm and I were both correct about the mistakes made at TMI, PE. To mention him alone here implies that I was not correct.

    But it is not correct that "pure luck" saved it from being even more disastrous. That is crazy; you two are defending a ridiculous overstatement, and categorizing the operators as a group of 100% screwups, who had nothing to do with preventing this from becoming a worse accident. The truth of the matter is that a bunch of people scrambling to figure out what the hell to do finally arrived at the right answer. That is not luck. Luck would have been choosing response steps "purely" (to use Sandholm's term) at random from a wide possibility of options, and having the chosen step turn out by chance to be the correct step. There wasn't any chance involved in a group of operators finally figuring out what was going on and how to stop it. This was not "pure luck." Do you really believe that some divine thing such as CHANCE saved that reactor from totally melting down and probably busting open?

    Are you here to post information that stirs people up and gets the last laugh? That is a funny way around responding to contrary points, especially from someone who uses the fact that he used to be a scientist in order to defend his arguments so often. Ignore my points if you don't want to respond to them. You have no duty to answer anyone. But at least accept that they are reasonable points, and don't make fun simply because I am not 100% on the same page as you.

    However well-intentioned your post was – and I do think that it was, PE, don't get me wrong! – all you had to do was wait for real information with a real, nameable source. If your sources are impeccable, then name them. And tell us what they said. "Hi, folks. Fujifilm Japan reporting here. Radiation is going to affect our film production. We are receiving this much, which is enough to affect our film negatively," would be what they would have need to have said to make this a responsible and timely post on your part. As of now, it is an alarmist and fear-stirring post without cause.
    Last edited by 2F/2F; 03-22-2011 at 07:49 PM. Click to view previous post history.
    2F/2F

    "Truth and love are my law and worship. Form and conscience are my manifestation and guide. Nature and peace are my shelter and companions. Order is my attitude. Beauty and perfection are my attack."

    - Rob Tyner (1944 - 1991)

  10. #50

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    Erm... PE, what are "imponderables"??



 

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