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  1. #11

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    Yes, film will definitly become extinct. Nobody knows when, but in 100 million years will it be :-)

  2. #12
    Donald Qualls's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thilo Schmid
    Yes, film will definitly become extinct. Nobody knows when, but in 100 million years will it be :-)
    Exactly. Humanity will one day be extinct (in fact, one can make a good argument that our survival beyond the present century is precarious), and once we're gone, film will go with us. Short of that, there will likely come a day in some distant future when all the remaining chemical photographers in mankind's interstellar range have to make their own materials because at one or two per planet, it just doesn't pay to ship the stuff from world to world (even if you can somehow prevent extreme cosmic ray fogging and loss of speed in a multi-century journey). On the other hand, by that time it will likely be possible to simply dial up "Tri-X 400, ca. 2005, 135-36" on your Universal Duplicator and come back in five minutes to find a DX-coded cassette holding 36 exposures of fresh film (from a specification a thousand years old), and your stocks of material reduced by a few grams of steel and generic organics, a gram or two of silver and a bit less than a gram, combined, of chlorine, bromine, and iodine.

    For myself, I'd be overjoyed to live long enough, in reasonable health and vigor, to see that day...
    Photography has always fascinated me -- as a child, simply for the magic of capturing an image onto glossy paper with a little box, but as an adult because of the unique juxtaposition of science and art -- the physics of optics, the mechanics of the camera, the chemistry of film and developer, alongside the art in seeing, composing, exposing, processing and printing.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thilo Schmid
    Yes, film will definitly become extinct. Nobody knows when, but in 100 million years will it be :-)
    No, there is evidence that film has the ability to reproduce (pun intended). As it develops intelligence it will replace humans as the dominant species on the planet.

    Matt

    BTW, Kodak just became the #1 supplier of digital cameras in the US. I don't think it is going away in the near future.

  4. #14

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    while I do not buy into the idea that mankind is causing global warming, I do believe that current warming is a precursor to a coming ice age. So 50,000-100,000 years from now there will be plenty of fresh frozen paper and film waiting to be unearthed from the receeding glaciers.
    "Fundamentally I think we need to rediscover a non-ironic world"
    Robert Adams

  5. #15

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    This reminds me of a joke:

    Two planets meet in the universe. The first one says: "Hello, old fellow. Nice to meet you. How are you?" The second one replies: "Not that good. I'm suffering from "Homo Sapiens".
    "Ohhh, that's nothing serious. That goes away, that goes away..."

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thilo Schmid
    Yes, film will definitly become extinct. Nobody knows when, but in 100 million years will it be :-)
    It will probably become extinct in much the same way as:

    Vinyl records (still the preferred choice of DJs and many hi-fi afficionados)
    North Sea oil (when I was at school we were assured it would have run out by 1980)
    Steam Power (even nuclear powered ships only use that technology to produce ..... steam ... for the turbines!)
    Glenn Miller ( MIA December 1944. His estate makes more money now than it did when he was alive)
    Elvis (used to be just the one, now he works in every car wash and probably the odd photographic shop)
    Monochrome Photography (cheap colour processing certainly saw that off, I don't think!)
    Incandescent Light Bulbs (fluorescents are sooooo much more efficient, we are told)
    Radio (not a hope for that once there was TV for the masses)

    I could go on and on (and frequently do!)
    Best wishes to all,
    Steve

  7. #17

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    Hi all,

    please take into consideration that making movies will take place on emulsion for a long time to come. I know the first digital cinema has opened it's doors, but for a long time 35mm will be dominant, we're talkin terabytes of information when going digital for that. And guess who is a very large 35mm manufacturer??? Yes KODAK.

    Jeroen

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwmullet
    Hey -- maybe APUG could use an Eliza feature! Next time someone asks "Is film dead?", "What does Analog mean?" or some other such monthly or weekly FAQ, the Eliza-bot could just drag any number of duplicate responses into that thread, but make it ONLY visible to the person who posted it.

    Threads like that make APUG seem like a bridal magazine -- same stories, only the date at the top changes. (*then again... maybe I just haven't had enough coffee yet*)

    Does anyone else think that perhaps an appropriate collaborative project would be an FAQ witih pointers to threads containing common issues? We'd just need somewhere where we could share and revise a document before submitting it to Sean for his consideration.

    -KwM-
    Hey Kev!
    I'm with you on this one!
    Q: "Is it really all analog?"
    A: See FAQ #107 - "Analog for Dummies"

    Q: "Is film going away?"
    A: See FAQ #103 - "Film is Forever"

    etc....
    Jeanette
    .................................................. ................
    Isaiah 25:1

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by hasselbladuser
    Hi all,

    please take into consideration that making movies will take place on emulsion for a long time to come. I know the first digital cinema has opened it's doors, but for a long time 35mm will be dominant, we're talkin terabytes of information when going digital for that. And guess who is a very large 35mm manufacturer??? Yes KODAK.

    Jeroen
    Terabytes is baby-stuff these days. Oracle, for example, released database software two years ago that can handle roughly 1 million terabytes (8 exabytes). Given how rapidly storage technology advances and becomes affordable this will be an obstacle, cost-wise, for another half-dozen years at most.

  10. #20
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    Well, let's do a little quick math (after noting that top line films are released in larger formats than 35 mm)...

    For projection on a large screen, from a digital projector (which means the pixels from each frame will be the same place as the last, so they need to be small enough not to be visually obtrusive), we'll need minimum resolution (at 16:9 aspect ratio) of something like 10 megapixels, though standard 4:3 35 mm movie frames, 18x24 mm, are capable of recording something like 30-40 megapixels and it may be possible to see the difference between 10 and 40 MP in projection, as it's often possible to see the difference between 35 mm and 70 mm film in projection (and practically always possible to see the difference between 16 mm and 35 mm).

    So, if we allow a minimum of 40 megapixels per frame, and a frame rate (again, for top line theatric projection, not for the 24 fps 16 mm sound-on-film that used to get shown in the high school auditorium for assembly) of (IIRC) 60 fps, we get 2.4 gigapixels per second. Since skies can show significant banding (which is both distracting and looks cheap) in 8 bits per channel, we'll assume 12 bits per channel for color, or 4.5 bytes per pixel -- putting us at 10.8 gigabytes per second for theatrical quality digital projection. Multiply by a common movie length of 6000 seconds (for a short feature) up to 15000 seconds (for a long one, like Return of the King), and we get somewhere between 65 and about 170 terabytes for a feature film.

    Storing that kind of data isn't a big deal; an optical jukebox with that kind of capacity was available at least ten years ago. Transferring that rate in real time to the projector, however, is quite another issue; that's about 50 times the fastest burst transfer mode my computer can use between hard disk and RAM, and close to 300 times the best sustained speed (though mine isn't by any means the fastest desktop unit around). Compression can help -- but in theaters you also want to avoid compression artifacts, meaning (generally) either a relatively low compression ratio or lossless compression (which only has low compression, relative to JPEG and MPEG).

    The technology to do all this is available -- including the necessary resolution of bright-light tolerant, high speed LCD shutters with optical merging to give the screen size and three color channels -- but at a cost of more than a million dollars a screen, last time I checked, and then you still have to get the data to the theater system. A projector capable of showing 70 mm, 60 fps film is technology at least twenty years old, and stacks of film cans are technology that goes back to the days when George Eastman and Thomas Edison created 35 mm by way of Edison holding up his fingers and saying he needed film "about that wide".
    Photography has always fascinated me -- as a child, simply for the magic of capturing an image onto glossy paper with a little box, but as an adult because of the unique juxtaposition of science and art -- the physics of optics, the mechanics of the camera, the chemistry of film and developer, alongside the art in seeing, composing, exposing, processing and printing.

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