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  1. #121
    Hatchetman's Avatar
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    Seems like some of the folks here get downright giddy at the thought of Kodak film disappearing. Rather odd given the nature of the forum. Wonder if they have some ulterior motive.

    I'm a commercial banker myself (which means nothing BTW), and not at all convinced that color film production is doomed.

  2. #122
    Ken Nadvornick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PKM-25 View Post
    I will just come hear like many do, find a quick tech solution, not post and just get out and make great photographs happen, regardless of medium.
    If you are able to come here, get a solution to your photographic problem, then go out and make great photographs, APUG has succeeded at some level, has it not?

    Ken
    "They are the proof that something was there and no longer is. Like a stain. And the stillness of them is boggling. You can turn away but when you come back they’ll still be there looking at you."

    — Diane Arbus, March 15, 1971, in response to a request for a brief statement about photographs

  3. #123
    MattKing's Avatar
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    I've never thought that APUG's purpose was to promote film use. I thought it was to support those who choose to use film. Promotion is a byproduct.
    Matt

    “Photography is a complex and fluid medium, and its many factors are not applied in simple sequence. Rather, the process may be likened to the art of the juggler in keeping many balls in the air at one time!”

    Ansel Adams, from the introduction to The Negative - The New Ansel Adams Photography Series / Book 2

  4. #124
    Rudeofus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aristophanes View Post
    Worse, Kodak volumes subsidized the entire supply and distribution chain related to emulsion products. When Kodak declares Ch. 11, then there will considerable creditor (not just investor) scrutiny of anything to do with film as it is technically a "credit event". This will result in more upwards cost pressure, not just for Kodak.
    And this reminds me exactly how all the digital camera makers went belly up once the Olympus balance fraud got public. Oh, I'm wrong, I meant to say how the whole electric power plant industry went bust after the Enron scandal broke loose. Oh, wrong again, but the demise of Kodak will most certainly kill off all other US companies making photographic film. All zero of them. And since Kodak has turned into an inkjet printer company lately, this whole mess is certainly going to put Lexmark and HP out of business. Please educate us how exactly the financial troubles of Kodak are going to impact Ilford, Efke, Foma and Fuji, or the film business in general.
    Quote Originally Posted by Aristophanes View Post
    The demand for film from Kodak has been in a ~10% per annum decline since 2003 according Kodak financial statements. At one point Kodak sold something like $11 billion worth of film per year and now they are in the low hundreds of millions of $$$ and still declining.
    The decline may have been from decline in photographic film use initially but now it's mostly from decline in movie film use. Kodak has recently stated that photographic film sales have been flat last year. Kodaks production facilities may not be feasible if movie film is no longer used, but this doesn't automatically harm other makers of photographic film, especially those who don't make movie film. And someone may take over Kodak's color film know how and run their process in smaller scale, financing for this could well come from the movie industry which still depends on material being produced right now.

    Like CGWs postings, your postings remind me a lot of the "*BSD is dying" meme. You both like to draw doom&gloom scenarios from a few cherry picked facts obtained through a quick online search and ignore the fact that despite all these "handwritings on the wall", film and cameras are still being made by several companies spread out over several continents. I'd be more concerned that a new economic crash ends our ability to afford photographic products (analog and digital) than that there will be no film&paper&chems available in the next couple of years.

    Quote Originally Posted by PKM-25 View Post
    I wonder how the owner of the site feels about this ongoing thread practically owned by Aristophanes and his never ending call for doom, practically calling out for the death of the site as well?
    We may not agree with CGW and Aristophanes but we should by all means defend their ability to state their opinion here. The owner of this site would be very ill advised if he censored the postings to only include cheerful and optimistic views about the future of film.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hatchetman View Post
    Seems like some of the folks here get downright giddy at the thought of Kodak film disappearing. Rather odd given the nature of the forum. Wonder if they have some ulterior motive.
    Waiting for CGW to write: "I'm just realistic there's no point in blind optimism" 3 ....... 2....... 1.......
    Trying to be the best of whatever I am, even if what I am is no good.

  5. #125
    Aristophanes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hatchetman View Post
    Seems like some of the folks here get downright giddy at the thought of Kodak film disappearing. Rather odd given the nature of the forum. Wonder if they have some ulterior motive.
    Caught. I'm shorting EK stock and buying out the remaining supplies of Tri-X, T-Max, Ektar and Portra. You will all have to go through me for your Kodak stock

  6. #126

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    I wish I had 300 rolls of Plus X 120. Let me know if you want to part with some!

  7. #127
    Aristophanes's Avatar
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    1) Olympus' scandal has little impact on a high-growth industry. Others can step in. Kodak's demise puts a giant question market on exactly how much demand there is for film of any kind, especially in the long term. In the ugliness of asset divestiture through Ch. 11, this fact will be forefront. So if you think I'm a doomsayer, wait until the real vultures step in. The ones with bags of money.

    2) Enron did blow up the power market. Certainly in California. I am a bond analyst. That was downright ugly, and the lawsuits are still ongoing at enormous cost to all ratepayers in many states. Enron's demise and lack of diligence all around exacted a huge toll on consumers, and still does.

    3) Kodak going south means that extending credit to all other film suppliers becomes an issue because the central point is the enormous erosion of demand for emulsion products worldwide. Instead of credit and financing being offered mostly on the financials of the supplier, analysts will be looking at the underlying customer base of the product. This could apply to the company making parts for Fuji processing machines to suppliers of emulsion chemicals to distribution wholesalers. If Kodak has to pay cash up front to get its film products on the shelf, then that could very well spread to everyone in the market.

    4) Yes, the whole question about the survival of roll and cartridge film will reside with the ability to manage small volumes with adequate QC.

    5) Doom and gloom is a function of economics and business. Where there's risk, there's doom.

    6) My major concern when looking at film production and the transfer of assets to someone other than Kodak is the entropy in the camera market. Basically any takeover of the Kodak's operations is like taking over a car part manufacturer for 1980's vehicles. This applies to Ilford as well as Fuji. At a certain point--when it is not known--the suppliers of credit and financing are going to ask where the new customers are, and where they are getting their equipment to load your emulsion product in. Like all creditors they may need more certainty that eBay sales volumes and flea markets. No supply of cameras could lead to a contraction ins the supply of credit and operational funds for film manufacturers. Prices rise, more customer leave as a result, and so on. That's the threat.

    You asked for an analysis. There ya go. Forever optimists should not have read the above. It makes them cranky.

    Personally, I think the future for film will be in going back tot he Eastman system of making film and cameras and doing processing by mail, all in-house. I think that's the only way the market can rationalize enough to survive. Frankly, I think that's a positive vision. Others may not. Your choice.
    Last edited by Aristophanes; 01-06-2012 at 01:23 PM. Click to view previous post history.

  8. #128
    Aristophanes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeff.blackwell View Post
    I wish I had 300 rolls of Plus X 120. Let me know if you want to part with some!
    Not on my list. But I do have a Nikon Coolscan 5000 ED for $75 million

  9. #129
    Ian Grant's Avatar
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    It's highly unlikely it's an end for Kodak's products many of us use or have used in the past.

    It's the parent corporate company that's in trouble due 100% to poor management and even poorer leadership, when they needeed to be innovative and forward thinking they cut their research budget drastically closing entire facilities. This was at a time the company still had huge cash resevrves and assets.

    The US movie film industry is dependant on Kodak, also film companies are seen as important strategic resources by governments. This is why Agfa still make film and also Ferrania.

    So is this the end of Kodak or rather the probable liberation of the coating division from the greedy directors who've milked the company over the past few years under Peres leadership.

    Ian

  10. #130

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    Film prices have gone up substantially for US folks yet the demand for photographic film stays flat - and that in the face of a double dip recession.

    Film prices have gone up due to a dramatic rise in the price of silver. And while its unpleasant to have to pay more, it reflects a sound business decision and somewhat stable demand, since Kodak did not feel the need to squeeze its profit margins or take an additional loss to maintain sales volume. Sometimes price increases are the clearest indicators of good business opportunity



 

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