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  1. #201
    keithwms's Avatar
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    Ilford will capture most of Kodak's b&w market share; Fuji will capture their colour market share. Both companies will probably eke out more pure profit per unit sold than Kodak ever could. Moreover, both companies have better long-term position to defend and perhaps even expand their market. Regarding demand, that is of course worrisome in some film sectors (cine, e6) but quite solid in others (b&w). And as I mentioned before, there is precedence of companies becoming far more profitable as the number of competitors declines. Yes, we don't like to compare rolls of film to cigarettes, but there you go, the business model is before you.

    Not that little ol' me would know anything about business strategy, but, years ago when I heard that polaroid was going under, I bought up a good amount of 8x10 polaroid. When deciding whether to invest in that, the motivating thought was: how much will the last polaroid print be worth? And the correct answer is, of course, priceless. Regardless of whether that last image is a cat's ass or the Queen of England. So I bought... and then sold it a few months later at 3x+ profit, when I saw that the worth of the individual sheets exceeded the price I could set on my own 8x10 polaroid output. I don't like cats and I doubt the Queen would have me over, so why not let someone else shoot the frames.

    There is plenty of profit (artistic and financial) available to those who know the core worth of the market, who see through the ups and downs of individual companies, and realize that individual prints made by historic processes are going to become very, very valuable in the coming years. Meditate on these words: as long as the process is to archival spec and the image composition is solid, an inkjet print is worth nothing, nada, nix, nil, nichevo, zip in comparison to a silver print, as a collectible piece of art. (unless somebody really famous personalizes the inkjet, a rare exception)

    So, to be blunt: shut up and get busy! Enough talk already. You know damn well what you have to do: make the best use of what is available, invest appropriately... and shoot, shoot, shoot... and print
    Last edited by keithwms; 01-08-2012 at 10:34 AM. Click to view previous post history.
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  2. #202
    Photo Engineer's Avatar
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    ER;

    Regarding your second paragraph, one must remember that there is a minimum length of film that must be coated and a minimum length of leader to thread the machine! This amounts to over 3 miles of film in one shot. Also there is a minimum operating speed. This means a lot of leader for small runners and a lot of idle time. And, the product they make will spoil. So, they cannot make too much.

    I've said before that this is like the produce or meat business. You have to get things just right. Right now, things are not "just right".

    The problem is that no one seems to understand this dilemma.

    PE

  3. #203

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    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    ER;

    Regarding your second paragraph, one must remember that there is a minimum length of film that must be coated and a minimum length of leader to thread the machine! This amounts to over 3 miles of film in one shot. Also there is a minimum operating speed. This means a lot of leader for small runners and a lot of idle time. And, the product they make will spoil. So, they cannot make too much.

    I've said before that this is like the produce or meat business. You have to get things just right. Right now, things are not "just right".

    The problem is that no one seems to understand this dilemma.

    PE
    Ron are you referring to the old coating lines or the new line? The information that I posted I got from someone who was given a special tour of the new facility about a year or two ago and was briefed by Kodak personnel. The whole point of the new line was to reduce the quantities required to run an emulsion and to enable easy switching from one kind of film to another on the same line.

  4. #204
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    There is one coating machine that coats everything now. It has a minimum speed and minimum threading length. These are absolute figures and cannot be changed. Therefore, the entire worlds supply of Kodachrome could have been coated in about 15 minutes near the end of its life. Of course it took months to prepare everything and bring them together that day at the head of the coating machine. But, there are gaps in coating that have reduced the EK coating to nearly the lower limit of sustainability. That is the problem. One whole building was mothballed at the end of May 2011.

    Two years is a long time when product demand is going down 30% per year!

    PE

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    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    There is one coating machine that coats everything now. It has a minimum speed and minimum threading length. These are absolute figures and cannot be changed. Therefore, the entire worlds supply of Kodachrome could have been coated in about 15 minutes near the end of its life. Of course it took months to prepare everything and bring them together that day at the head of the coating machine. But, there are gaps in coating that have reduced the EK coating to nearly the lower limit of sustainability. That is the problem. One whole building was mothballed at the end of May 2011.

    Two years is a long time when product demand is going down 30% per year!

    PE
    Ron when it com to the inside outs of kodak and film I defer to your expertise. The info I got was from a very reliable guy though so it makes me wonder if the the Kodak rep he was speaking with might have spun the upside a bit. Nevertheless, with the potential for a far lower overhead for Kodak post bankruptcy they might have some chance of going forward, I just hope silver prices go lower....

  6. #206
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    The Kodak person would not have talked about threading length or coating speeds among other things so he need not lie or even dissemble to your friend. He may just have omitted information that was not relevant to the tour.

    If a hypothentical machine coats 1 kilometer of film, and if the threading length is 1 Km and the coating speed is 100 m/min, then the machine coats 1 Km in 10 minutes, right? You must have 1 km of leader in the machine to thread it and 1 km of leader on a roll to rethread the machine after you make your run. So you use 3 Km of film for this 10 minute run. Two Km are reusable as leader, but must be considered in your inventory as used.

    In another room are dozens of people who have prepped the melts and monitor them during coating. There are about 20 or so for a color product. Behind them are the dozens who made the melts and emulsions and delivered them to the coating room.

    Once done, what do they do? Go home or go to the next product. Kodak was once on a 24/7/365 work schedule, but then reduced to 24/5/365 and then to 8/5/200 etc...... You see the decline? I doubt if ANY of this was discussed in that tour or if it was, I doubt if anyone really understood the significance.

    PE

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    The Kodak person would not have talked about threading length or coating speeds among other things so he need not lie or even dissemble to your friend. He may just have omitted information that was not relevant to the tour.

    If a hypothentical machine coats 1 kilometer of film, and if the threading length is 1 Km and the coating speed is 100 m/min, then the machine coats 1 Km in 10 minutes, right? You must have 1 km of leader in the machine to thread it and 1 km of leader on a roll to rethread the machine after you make your run. So you use 3 Km of film for this 10 minute run. Two Km are reusable as leader, but must be considered in your inventory as used.

    In another room are dozens of people who have prepped the melts and monitor them during coating. There are about 20 or so for a color product. Behind them are the dozens who made the melts and emulsions and delivered them to the coating room.

    Once done, what do they do? Go home or go to the next product. Kodak was once on a 24/7/365 work schedule, but then reduced to 24/5/365 and then to 8/5/200 etc...... You see the decline? I doubt if ANY of this was discussed in that tour or if it was, I doubt if anyone really understood the significance.

    PE
    My brother in law was in QC at agfa/ansco/gaf for decades, they had small output compared to Kodak..nobody understands the immense ouptput capabilities...

  8. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Photo Engineer View Post
    The Kodak person would not have talked about threading length or coating speeds among other things so he need not lie or even dissemble to your friend. He may just have omitted information that was not relevant to the tour.

    If a hypothentical machine coats 1 kilometer of film, and if the threading length is 1 Km and the coating speed is 100 m/min, then the machine coats 1 Km in 10 minutes, right? You must have 1 km of leader in the machine to thread it and 1 km of leader on a roll to rethread the machine after you make your run. So you use 3 Km of film for this 10 minute run. Two Km are reusable as leader, but must be considered in your inventory as used.

    In another room are dozens of people who have prepped the melts and monitor them during coating. There are about 20 or so for a color product. Behind them are the dozens who made the melts and emulsions and delivered them to the coating room.

    Once done, what do they do? Go home or go to the next product. Kodak was once on a 24/7/365 work schedule, but then reduced to 24/5/365 and then to 8/5/200 etc...... You see the decline? I doubt if ANY of this was discussed in that tour or if it was, I doubt if anyone really understood the significance.

    PE
    Thanks PE. I think many do understand that film coating is a very large scale industrial effort over both volume and time to be done with effective QC and economy.

    Industrial production on this scale will require a similar ratio of consumption and processing applying both to B&W and colour. Darkroom hobbyists make up maybe 1% of what is necessary to support a broader market. Only outsourced labs can make up the difference.. This applies to all suppliers. Fujifilm is in the exact same dilemma as Kodak, save Fujifilm did not mismanage their transition to alternative revenue sources.

  9. #209
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    Fuji also gets favorable support from their government!

    PE

  10. #210
    MDR
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    PE that's the sad truth the japanese government supports their large companies (other than banks and insurances) whereas the US and European governments pretty much only support the financial and military/arms industries.

    Dominik



 

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