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  1. #31
    CGW
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    Quote Originally Posted by keithwms View Post
    Well, let's bear in mind that the digital market has stagnated too. After a flurry of upgrades/updates and new this and that, the past year has seen very little from the likes of Canon and Nikon. (and Olympus is in big trouble, for different reasons) In terms of actual capability, you could argue that it's been stagnant for a while. Various new models have been rumored for some time, but held back, probably because of low consumer demand and also the floods in Asia and the tsunami etc.

    Demand for these kinds of non-essential consumer goods has been an unprecedentedly low, across the board. This period hasn't been bad just for film, and there's no real reason for film to perform any better in a downturn. Yeah it's lower cost but processing is vanishing and has thus become more expensive...
    With respect, you really should look a bit deeper into data that allow an understanding of trends instead of offering generalities:

    http://www.cipa.jp/english/index.html

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by CGW View Post
    With respect, you really should look a bit deeper into data that allow an understanding of trends instead of offering generalities:

    http://www.cipa.jp/english/index.html
    Thanks for the link, which proves my point. YoY demand for DSLRs is stalling (unless I am misreading the numbers, in which case I appreciate having that explained)

    The release of new DSLR models have been delayed, no question about it. And consumer spending has been very disappointing of late- that hits the whole market, not just cameras. ELectronic gadgets in general are not a sustainable market in my opinion. For too long the industry has assumed that a slight improvement will make people want to run out and replace their shiny almost-new whatever. But for technical and for financial reasons, that is not happening at the rate people expected. And now the euro crisis...

    A big hit to the traditional cameramakers has been the smartphones with their high-mp cameras. Many consumers think a smartphone's megapixel is equivalent to a DSLR's megapixel. And companies like Kodak just aren't out there showing consumers otherwise.
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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aristophanes View Post
    The digital market has nowhere near stagnated.
    I am happy to be shown wrong. But... my clear impression as someone who also shoots digital on the side (eek, I said it!) is that there have been many delays in bringing out new models. This may not show up in sales for a while but I think we've seen a big slowing of new product intros.

    Anyway I just went through some CIPA data and they varied a lot from month to month, is there some graphical info?

    Perhaps this should be discussed elsewhere; I doubt APUGgers want to discuss digital demand
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  4. #34
    CGW
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    And consumer spending has been very disappointing of late- that hits the whole market, not just cameras. ELectronic gadgets in general are not a sustainable market in my opinion. For too long the industry has assumed that a slight improvement will make people want to run out and replace their shiny almost-new whatever. But for technical and for financial reasons, that is not happening at the rate people expected. And now the euro crisis...


    Smart phone sales? Show me "stagnation" there.

    Difference between episodes and trends? "Of late" isn't the stuff of time series analysis--or argument. The jury is in on film consumption.

  5. #35

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    Some parts of the digital market is for sure decreasing. I Norway camera sales went down with about 100.000 units i 2011, total sale around 400.000 units. So a 100.000 units decrease is significant.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by CGW View Post
    Smart phone sales? Show me "stagnation" there.
    I didn't say smartphone sales were stagnating. I said that smartphone sales have probably eaten away some of the digital camera market... Cameramakers seem to have mostly missed the transition to online sharing as opposed to at-home printmaking. The social networking wave has probably clobbered printer sales. And then Kodak jumps into the printer market.... bad move. Imagine where Kodak would be if they had a strategic partnership with apple a few years back to, you know, revolutionize iPhone cameras or whatever.

    As for "stagnation", let me refer you to a really wonderful little book by Tyler Cowen. (And no I am not his agent, although I will admit mentioning it here many times) Please have a look. I think it'll really ring a bell with many on here. It's not about little ups and downs in innovation and demand, it's about the problem of long-term stagnation in technology and how "low hanging fruit" brought us to where we are. On this subject, my blog on the need for "real Jobs" is on this issue as well. The point is that the fashion of replacing electronica with other slightly different electronica leads to zero job growth and long term problems for sci and tech.
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  7. #37
    CGW
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    Quote Originally Posted by keithwms View Post
    I didn't say smartphone sales were stagnating. I said that smartphone sales have probably eaten away some of the digital camera market... Cameramakers seem to have mostly missed the transition to online sharing as opposed to at-home printmaking. The social networking wave has probably clobbered printer sales. And then Kodak jumps into the printer market.... bad move. Imagine where Kodak would be if they had a strategic partnership with apple a few years back to, you know, revolutionize iPhone cameras or whatever.

    As for "stagnation", let me refer you to a really wonderful little book by Tyler Cowen. (And no I am not his agent, although I will admit mentioning it here many times) Please have a look. I think it'll really ring a bell with many on here. It's not about little ups and downs in innovation and demand, it's about the problem of long-term stagnation in technology and how "low hanging fruit" brought us to where we are. On this subject, my blog on the need for "real Jobs" is on this issue as well. The point is that the fashion of replacing electronica with other slightly different electronica leads to zero job growth and long term problems for sci and tech.
    Er, well, maybe you should trade in the tar brush for a technical pen:

    ELectronic gadgets in general are not a sustainable market in my opinion. For too long the industry has assumed that a slight improvement will make people want to run out and replace their shiny almost-new whatever.

    Sorry, I've no political or intellectual affinity with Cowen whatsoever. Try some Paul Krugman?

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by CGW View Post
    Sorry, I've no political or intellectual affinity with Cowen whatsoever. Try some Paul Krugman?
    Oh please, Krugman! Perfect example of an economist who stares at charts all day and doesn't actually know anything about the real economy. Yeah, we're deflating instead of inflating, I get it. Krugman's solution: just let our debt go way past 100% GDP and assume that what worked in the 1950s will also work now. And if he's wrong then the next generation will be effed beyond all belief, like Greece. But guess what, Krugman won't be around to take the rap.

    If you'd look at Cowen's book you'd see that there is an underlying reasons for where we find ourselves. Krugman doesn't consider the underlying reasons at all, he just gets pissy and complains about some right-wing morons, as if that will make any difference.
    "Only dead fish follow the stream"

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  9. #39
    CGW
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    Quote Originally Posted by keithwms View Post
    Oh please, Krugman! Perfect example of an economist who stares at charts all day and doesn't actually know anything about the real economy. Yeah, we're deflating instead of inflating, I get it. Krugman's solution: just let our debt go way past 100% GDP and assume that what worked in the 1950s will also work now. And if he's wrong then the next generation will be effed beyond all belief, like Greece. But guess what, Krugman won't be around to take the rap.

    If you'd look at Cowen's book you'd see that there is an underlying reasons for where we find ourselves. Krugman doesn't consider the underlying reasons at all, he just gets pissy and complains about some right-wing morons, as if that will make any difference.
    Let's stick to photography unless you also need to know which economist is the Nobel laureate, OK?

  10. #40
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    I am well aware who won what, thanks. Yeah, I can know some others who won Nobels recently... the list is not impressive.

    Back to film...
    "Only dead fish follow the stream"

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