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  1. #11

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    It's funny to think that 2020 sounds far off, but is only about 8 years away. I don't think it will be all that different... and if all else fails, we can always do calotypes, right?

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by hoffy View Post
    Ohh boy, this thread is going to be a cracker. Let me get some pop corn, sit back and watch....
    Well put.

    I thought it was Mark Twain that once said, I'm surprised more people are not concerned with the future, I expect to spend the rest of my life there... or something to the effect. I am looking for the quote.
    Lee

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by daleeman View Post
    I would like to hear what others see in their crystal balls as to what analog photography will be like in the future.
    Well, first of all, I have two balls and one is cellulose and the other silicon. And they both function very well, thank you very much.

    That said, I think the long term trend is for analogue photographers to go back to the future and retrace the historical developments of photography. I think it will be super-fascinating, actually. Yes, there will be infrared plates that you can buy, there will be new sensitizers and some beautiful new inventions. And, most importantly, there will be more interest in those forms of analogue photography for which we have complete ownership of the photographic process from start to finish. Do you think you really "own" a process in which you push mass-produced film through a mass-produced camera and make a print on mass-produced paper? Uh, no you don't.... at least not in the way that Talbot et al owned their process. Yes, analogue is only going to get more interesting.

    As I said elsewhere, I actually look forward to TEOTWATKI: The End Of The World As They Know It. "They" are those who go on and on about analogue, but who couldn't make an emulsion with a blender and a cracked egg to save their lives. Over the next few years, they will sob and whine every time some mass-produced film product is priced beyond their reach, and they will expect us to care when they ultimately decide to purchase one of those cameras. Meanwhile, the rest of us, confident in the ascending value of the individual craft, will calmly and resolutely continue to enjoy what we do... and find continued enjoyment by sharing our ideas and images with others.
    Last edited by keithwms; 02-12-2012 at 08:47 AM. Click to view previous post history. Reason: spelling
    "Only dead fish follow the stream"

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  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by ic-racer View Post
    I doubt it will be much different from what it is now. The big change was from 2000 to 2010 and that change was a dramatic reduction in the price of used gear. Other than that, for me its not much different than 1980.
    Yep.

    I've been on APUG for 8 years, and we've been having these discussions since inception. Film and paper costs a bit more (so does food and gasoline), but I'm using more or less the same materials. Gear prices go up and down and vary depending on what it is. Leicas and Hassies are fairly pricey, but Mamiyas and Minoltas are dirt cheap. Well, except for the Mamiya rangefinders. I still can't get over how enlargers can't be given away in some cases, but a good 4 blade easel will cost you a couple of hundred dollars!

  5. #15

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    Let me see, in eight years I expect to be shooting TMY in 7x17, TMY-2 in 8x10, FP4 and TMY-2 in 5x7, Tri-X320 in 220, TMY-2 and Acros in 120 and Tri-X 400 in 35mm. I'll be making prints using Azo and Amidol along with Platinum and perhaps some other traditional processes. I know this because the materials are already on hand. Kind of takes the fun out of looking in the crystal ball, but I prefer it this way.
    As always, YMMV
    John Bowen

  6. #16
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    In 8 years I will still be managing the teaching darkroom at the university, helping students with the exposure of their film and the making of their silver gelatin prints. And I will spend days like last Friday, helping a class of 30 students make their first palladium prints -- and as I will next month, showing them how to make carbon prints (with those still interested after seeing the time required for the process, taking a weekend workshop with me on making their own carbon prints).

    vaughn
    At least with LF landscape, a bad day of photography can still be a good day of exercise.

  7. #17
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    I think you have to divide analog into 2 camps:

    1) Custom processes—Lots of threads here on APUG and elsewhere. Will be seen as more unique and valuable. Will survive indefinitely.

    2) Roll and cartridge film industrial processes—Depends on pure volume at affordable prices to stay viable. Industrial production requires industrial consumption. Its survival will almost entirely depend on scanning to enable a broad enough market for the coating lines to keep their revenues viably high enough. The home darkroom crowd and the few pro lab left cannot sustain the volume to keep a single supplier in the market unless there is innovation and rationalization within the industry. Vertical integration of production, materials, and distribution will be key. We'll know well before 2020.

  8. #18
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    Judging by the age of some of the participants here, you younger guys better suck up all the knowledge you can because some of the masters, will be heading to the darkroom in the sky during the next decade.
    I couldn't think of anything witty to say so I left this blank.

  9. #19
    CGW
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    Quote Originally Posted by blansky View Post
    Judging by the age of some of the participants here, you younger guys better suck up all the knowledge you can because some of the masters, will be heading to the darkroom in the sky during the next decade.
    A bigger worry is the passing of skilled repair people--something few discussions of the current bonanza of film gear ever consider as problematic for the future.

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