Methinks the 35mm SLR will disappear just like books did after the invention of the personal computer. Go to Amazon.Com; there are just no books anymore.
Little joke: wait for 2012 - end of digital ... and rebirth of 35mm SLR:
shimoda also wrote:
Originally Posted by clayne
It is exactly this that changes when we go into the post-stage. Under the late stages of the industrial revolution everything was about function and what was technically possible. Architects of that time did not even think they where following a style, today, at least in sweden we call the style of that time "funkis", since it was all about functionality. But after the war when society had become all out industrial, things changed. Things like style, feelings, colors, mood, ergonomics became important, it was no longer all about function anymore.
Very interesting opinions given here. My apologies for almost starting a d...l thread but I ponder about this a lot since I imagine seeing a slight "fed-up-ness" with digital (not only cameras) in western society.
A shift along these lines will probably also happen when we enter the postdigital society. We are not there yet in many years to come and shifts like this occur for decades, quite slow processes. But this also means that we can see it coming.
We can see today that real things, real as in IRL or AFK (Away From Keyboard), has started to get much more value. In the eighties an LP record was quite expensive but going to concerts was cheap. Bands and their promotors saw tours as something necessary to promote records. All this has inverted, today we can sometimes get a CD almost for free bundled together with a newspaper or magazine, but tickets to a concert can cost a fortune. Today the records are starting to be seen as the promotion of live performance.
We can also look at the changes in photography, microstock, how image price dropped more than 10 fold. Again, digital copies goes for almost nothing, but to hire a professional.. But also.. photographers in general have never been able to live on stock alone, stock imagery was always about getting a little extra, enough to maybe buy a new lens. But look at people like Yuri Arcurs making $300000 on microstock, having 400,000 payed downloads per year and he is hardly alone doing figures like this either. The video tour in his studio was seen as simply impossible a couple of years ago when pros complained about the new microstock:
But at the same time, old agencies living by the old book goes belly up, essentially acting just as those old industries i took examples of in my last post in this thread.
And when talking about cameras.. Look at large format. Kodak even released the Ektar film in large format. This move was not even thinkable 4 years ago. We do also see some high profile manufacturers like Zeiss and Voigtländer release new manual focus lenses, at quite high prices. These are small signs that tell us something.
At some point people get fed up and it is no longer possible to get them to buy into more features just because it is possible. Things revert back to basics because after all people are humans with human needs. But reverting back do not mean using old technology and discarding the new, it is that importance of "feeling" and what people needs that gets focus instead of what new features marketing departments can lure us to believe that we need.
Technology is a very sharp two edged sword!!! Society in general is being "dumbed down" by automation doing everything we once had to have knowledge and skill to do. Calculators do simple arithmetic, Spell check corrects our mistakes, digital cameras set exposure, speed and aperture so that we have less skill to cope on our own.
Originally Posted by clayne
I have said for quite some time, if there were ever a large global disaster, only those people who had the skills, farming, carpentry, hunting, fishing etc, would be able to survive.
Most people do not take time to think through all of the ramifications of technology. As already stated most people just want to take 100 shots of their kids learning to walk or ride a bike so a camera that does all of the thinking and gives them a reasonably good snapshot makes them happy. A car that will park itself using a GPS to find you way to the local grocery store, blah, blah, blah. The problem is when there are system failures and everything comes to a grinding halt! Air traffic systems controlled by computers get hacked and the world is thrown into a state of chaos.
But then there are people like us who still want to learn and retain skills for things that are basic. I love the advances in things like medicine but long for the past that has smaller towns and villages, governments and the problems that come with expansion.
This is a ramble about technology but is directly related to the the original post. Photography is certainly caught up in the technology swing Soon the disposable camera will just have a chip in it rather than film. I don't really understand the swing toward video in a still camera???? But the marketeers always try to make one product that appeals to the largest group of consumers. A camera that replaces two grabs a segment of both markets.
The Future? !! Digi-Film TLR !!
I can see a "Twin Lens Reflex" camera that has a digital viewer and capture system at the top and a film capture system at the bottom. One could choose to capture on film or on chip. That way they get the best of both worlds !!
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You have it the nail squarely on the head.
Originally Posted by keithwms
Originally Posted by wblynch
Yes, I agree, something like that is the most likely scenario. Arca-Swiss released a (mega-expensive) hybrid LF digi-film set up which has created waves in professional and artistic circles, providing the timeless quality of LF film with the immediacy of results (instead of Polaroids). If the technology is to trickle down to SLRs, manufacturers must get off the "more megapixels and technology is better" gravy train and put some real value and thought into their products with dual-mode technology, rather than just pander ceaselessly to pretty well stagnant imaging and capture technology.
Not sure I understand the original question. If the question is about how Canon and Nikon will get you to buy a new 35mm film camera every 3 years, the answer is simple: they don't care as they don't make one any more. Nikon has a bunch of new F6 bodies to get rid of but that's about it.
If it is about digital, well sensor development will continue until you will be able to shoot 3D video in complete darkness. After that you will get holographic recording and projection and eventually it will all be built into your eye. But if this question is indeed about digital, shouldn't that be posted in FM or DPreview or something?
Lots of emphasis on more and more 'features' and the accompanying marketing to convince people they need those features regardless of cost.
But I think the SLR shape is being squeezed two ways: firstly from 'above' with more tech stuff which will morph cameras into camcorders. But probably more importantly, from 'below' where most people are happy with the camera on their 'phone.
In the past, the great majority of people were happy with a plastic Instamatic.
Originally Posted by perkeleellinen
It seems most people are satisfied with mediocrity, sadly.