Well we need to square up on the assumption.
My goal in the OP is to simply to place the face, in this case I don't really care about where the rest of the exposure falls.
So I did a down and dirty test, in camera JPEGs uploaded to Flickr
Like the example in the op the subject is in open shade camera looking out of the shade.
Used EI 400 and f/5.6 for all shots.
Classic metering got 1/250
Follow the nose 1/320
Meter the Main got 1/400
None of these methods came close. None had blown highlights on the subject.
From there I shot 1/500, 1/1000
At 1/1000, two stops reduced exposure from classic, the subject is starting to look a bit like the op example.
Could probably go 3 stops.