Originally Posted by Rafal Lukawiecki
Indeed, Rudi—the upsweep towards less-than-none exposure looked humorous. Bear in mind, however, if I you increase the number of degrees of freedom on the Bezier spline to 7 or more, the toe looks just fine, yet the calculation still gets the CI—what we miss then is the smoothing that neatly takes care of the statistical measurement error. Having said that, I have to play, yet, with other types of splines, including log-influenced ones, which might have that "perfect" look.
Splines are commonly used to describe arbitrarily curved shapes, because they can be made to fit almost any point set with a smooth looking curve. In the same fashion you can make them LMS fit a point cloud, and that's what you did with your LOESS approach, or to say it more accurately: that's what the LOESS algorithm did for you. The more degrees of freedom you allow the LOESS algorithm, the closer the result will fit your point cloud, but remember that your point cloud is still noisy data!

What you really want is the following:
1. find a model that fits the characteristic curves you expect. Allow this model to use as few parameters as possible, because the more parameters you allow, the more data points you need to get meaningful and reliable numbers for each parameter. Look at curves of the log(1+exp(a*x)) or log(1+exp(a*x + b*x2)) type, you can describe most characteristic curves that a reasonable developer will give you. The first type describes straight slopes, while the second type also allows for upswept (b>0) and downswept (b<0) curves. Use shifting to place the toe where you need it, and use scaling to match the size of the toe area.
2. Use LMS fit to fit that model to your noisy data set. Since you have very few parameters with very distinct effects, numerical stability should be fine ---> no more NaN results.
3. Extract CI or whatever you were looking for from the best fit model. Since all data points have their impact on the final result, you should get very reliable results even with very noisy data. And yes, densitometer readings can be quite noisy.