I don't know how optimistic people are in general, but if the U.S. and its allies attack Iran later this year or something, as an example, the oil distribution from that region will shut down, and we'll suffer greatly from getting the goods that we normally do because a lot of them use oil for packaging(plastic) and delivering(fuel).
That won't help stabilize the prices on photo supplies, either. That's for sure.
Invading Iran will only play into the hands of the digi-heads. Reason enough to reconsider.
Somehow, I think the Iranians would be the ones to suffer, but I could be wrong . . .